how we calculate
where each number comes from
The weather comes from three independent global models, cross-checked hour by hour: when they agree, confidence goes up; when they diverge, the band between them shows on the chart. Beyond 16 days, we use the GEFS ensemble of 31 simulations: if 20 of the 31 predict rain, the chance of rain is 65%. Sun and moon are calculated astronomically, with no uncertainty.
The index adds up, weighted for each species: time of day (species curve anchored to real sunrise and sunset), moon (transits, rise and set, phase), pressure (3 h trend and 24 h swing), water temperature (in rivers, estimated from air temperature; at sea, estimated by an ocean model), wind, rain, clouds, tide and the month in the species' cycle.
sources for this lookup
how accurate the forecast is
Accuracy measured in the reference project (4 regions, 93 days, forecast vs. observed): maximum temperature is off by 0.6 °C on average the next day and 1.7 °C at 7 days; rain of 5 mm or more is detected 76% of the time the next day and 57% at 7 days. Detection isn't everything: the false alarm rate isn't published here yet, and 93 days in 4 regions is still a small sample. We now also measure every day, at the app's destinations:
