Silvery, slender and very agile fish, in schools in shallow water, bays, lagoons and estuaries of the eastern Pacific, from California to Peru. Fights hard on the hook, but has many small bones and is hardly eaten.
Also called: ubarana-machete, machete del Pacífico, machete, chiro, Pacific ladyfish, Pacific machete, Ten-pounder
Choose the place and the species. The index, from 0 to 100, combines weather, sun, moon and tide with each fish's habits. Up to 28 days, with each day's confidence.
location
Sample location: choose yours to see the forecast for where you fish.
period
Reading the weather across 3 global models and 31 simulations…
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index Score from 0 to 100 for the fishing conditions of each hour. It reads weather, sun, moon, tide and the species' habits. It doesn't promise fish: it tells you when the water is on your side. 0–24 poor · 25–44 fair · 45–64 good · 65–84 very good · 85–100 excellent.
today
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confidence —
confidence How much you can trust the weather forecast for the day. It drops with distance and when the models disagree. It is not the chance of catching fish.
models and trend Up to 16 days, three global weather models (the European ECMWF, the American GFS and a high-resolution blend) read hour by hour; when they disagree, the light band on the chart widens. Beyond that it's a trend: 31 runs of the American GEFS model. Confirm when it's 1 week out.
window Consecutive hours with the index near the day's peak and no danger alert. It is the time to have the bait in the water.
hour by hour
tap or drag on the chart to read each hour · on a keyboard, arrow keys
see hour-by-hour table
why this index at —?
next 7 days
choose the day
chart: bar height = day's index · line = variation between models · striped = trend · fainter = less confidence
Each card shows the day's index (0 to 100) and, below it, a strip with the index for each hour, from 0h to 23h. from poor to excellent.
4-week calendar
the fishing month at a glance
plan a trip
what's the best window for the crew?
Choose how many fishing days. We compare each stretch by its average index, discount days with a warning or closed season, and show the 3 best.
trend for the coming weeks
Line: the middle value of 31 simulations of the American GEFS model. Band: where 8 out of 10 fall. Narrow, firm trend; wide, high uncertainty.
the species
everything about the machete
overview
who is the machete
The Pacific machete is the relative of the ubarana (Elops smithi) in the eastern Pacific. It lives in schools in shallow, sheltered water, in bays, lagoons and mangroves, and enters rivers; it occurs from Mandalay Beach, southern California (USA), to Peru, including the whole Gulf of California. It reaches 91 cm, with a common length of about 50 cm. It eats fish and penaeid shrimp, and the Mexican guide says it feeds at dusk. Spawning probably takes place in open sea, and the transparent larvae migrate to the coast. According to FishBase, it fights vigorously on the hook, and so it is a target of sport fishing in some areas, but it has low commercial value because of its many small bones. The IUCN classifies it as data deficient (DD).
fun facts
In English it is called ten-pounder, but according to the Mexican guide it rarely exceeds three pounds.
The IGFA record cited by the Mexican guide is 0.99 kg (2 lb 3 oz), from the Gulf of California, in 2018.
In Peru, machete is a different fish, the sardine Ethmidium maculatum: don't mix up the minimum size tables.
how to recognize it
identification
Long, slender, silvery body with bluish reflections, yellowish head and a white stripe on the lower lobe of the tail. The mouth is large, at the tip of the snout, and extends past the eye; there is a long bony plate under the chin, between the branches of the lower jaw. It has a single dorsal fin, in the middle of the back, without spines, and the tail is deeply forked; the scales are tiny (100 to 120 along the lateral line). The Pacific bonefish (Albula) has a rat-like snout and a ventral mouth.
Not found in Brazil. Eastern Pacific, from Mandalay Beach, southern California (USA), to Peru, including the Gulf of California; in Mexico, in all Pacific waters. FishBase lists Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru.
Habitat: Shallow, sheltered waters: bays, lagoons, mangroves and river mouths, over sandy bottom, from 0 to 10 m.
calendar and clock
when to fish
best season
time of yearbest: May–Oct
JanFebSeaAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Occurs all year. The app gives more weight to the warmer months, May to October.
best time of day
Dawn and dusk. The Mexican guide says it feeds at dusk, and the app's estimate follows that, with more activity at dawn and dusk.
weather, water and behavior
what affects the machete
sensitivity The little bars show how much each factor affects this species. Five full: it feels it a lot.
cold and cold fronts
Cold winter water reduces activity and drives the schools away from shallow lagoons.
atmospheric pressure
A front with strong wind shuts down shore fishing.
moon
Small effect and no study.
rain
Muddy river water entering the lagoon scatters the schools.
water level
Not applicable at sea.
noise
Schools in shallow water spook at footsteps on the bank and at shadows.
wind
Strong wind hinders light casting and fly fishing.
tide
Current at the entrance of lagoons and estuaries concentrates the schools.
It jumps and runs: use smooth drag and a barbless hook. Retrieve quickly with short pauses, near lagoon and mangrove mouths.
what the law says
rules for the machete
Summary of the regulations we found, with the source for each. Rules change; before keeping or transporting fish, check with the state environmental agency. Conservation: Insufficient data to assess the risk. The species is poorly studied. It is not listed in Mexico's NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010.
Mexico: «sábalo o chiro» is reserved for sport fishing, but the standard does not say which species it is
If the standard covers this species: up to 2 fish per angler per dayconfirm with the agency
NOM-017 reserves «sábalo o chiro» for sport fishing, up to 50 nautical miles from shore, and limits it to 2 fish per angler per day (items 0.3 and 4.9.1), without giving a scientific name. «Sábalo» is usually the camurupim (Megalops atlanticus). FishBase records «chiro» among the popular names of the Pacific machete (in Galápagos records). We found no source saying whether the standard covers the machete (Elops affinis). When in doubt, keep no more than 2 a day and prefer to release it.
Mexico: up to 5 per species and 10 saltwater fish per day
5 specimens of the species per angler per day, within the limit of 10 saltwater fish
In recreational sport fishing in Mexican federal waters, each angler may keep up to 10 marine fish per day, no more than 5 of the same species. The machete is not among the species reserved for sport fishing (marlin, sailfish, swordfish, "sábalo o chiro," roosterfish and dorado, up to 50 nautical miles from shore, item 0.3 of the standard) and has no quota of its own. Fish over the limit go back alive (item 4.9.5), and sport-caught fish may not be sold. Anglers fishing from a boat need the permits of the Federal Duties Law; anglers fishing from shore do not (item 4.3).
Personal Incopesca license, for people over 16confirm with the agency
In the regulation of the Fisheries and Aquaculture Law (Decree 36782, of May 24, 2011), art. 69, sport fishing is authorized only for natural persons over 16, with a license issued by Incopesca; tourists, whether national or foreign, also need the license. Art. 68 limits the landing of large pelagics to 5 per trip, and art. 66 promotes catch and release, but the rule sets no quota for this species. The decree was later amended (Decree 39458), so confirm the current rule with Incopesca.
Panama: new sport fishing decree in force from Dec 10, 2026
Executive Decree No. 9 (Jun 10, 2026), in force from Dec 10, 2026confirm with the agency
ARAP published Executive Decrees No. 9 and No. 10, of Jun 10, 2026, in the Official Gazette. The first regulates sport fishing throughout the territory; the second protects billfish (sailfish and marlins). Both take effect on Dec 10, 2026, after six months of adaptation. We did not verify the text: the press report gives no catch limits, sizes or license requirements. Before fishing in Panama, check with ARAP.
Colombia: AUNAP license and catch-and-release in sport fishing
Individual AUNAP license; catch-and-release guidanceconfirm with the agency
AUNAP Resolution 0549 of 2022 sets the guidelines for sport fishing for recreational purposes in Colombia. Anyone fishing needs a permit: for a natural person, Colombian or foreign, it is a personal, non-transferable license (art. 6). The rule uses "capture and release" as guidance. We did not verify the daily limit or the minimum sizes by species: check with AUNAP before keeping any fish.
catch and release Releasing the fish alive, quickly and with a wet hand. During a closed season it isn't always allowed: what the regulation says applies.
Fish with loose scales and thin skin: wet your hands, hold it firmly by the body and release it quickly.
in the kitchen
It is hardly eaten: it has many small bones throughout the body and low commercial value.
calculator
how much it weighs without taking it out of the water
Length-weight relationship W = a·Lb (a = 0.00617, b = 2.99; FishBase (relação peso-comprimento bayesiana, estimativa)). It's an average: a fat or lean fish can vary by 10% to 20%.
estimated weight
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sources and references
The season weights (months), time of day and sensitivities (cold, pressure, moon, wind, rain, tide, strong light, murky water and noise) are the app's editorial estimates, based on the literature below and on field experience of anglers and guides. They are not official data or measurements made for this species, and may vary by region and year. Closed seasons and legal rules appear in the rules section, with the standard and a link. The common size starts from FishBase's common length (50 cm), and the common weight is calculated from the length-weight relationship.
technicalMexican Fish (mexican-fish.com): ficha do Machete (Elops affinis)Independent guide to Mexican Pacific fishes, with photos of catches and the author's observations; not an official source. Page checked on 13/10/2026. It reports the schooling habit in shallow water, feeding at dusk, the IGFA record of 0.99 kg and that the flesh is not eaten. We did not verify the record on the IGFA website.
The weather comes from three independent global models, cross-checked hour by hour: when they agree, confidence goes up; when they diverge, the band between them shows on the chart. Beyond 16 days, we use the GEFS ensemble of 31 simulations: if 20 of the 31 predict rain, the chance of rain is 65%. Sun and moon are calculated astronomically, with no uncertainty.
The index adds up, weighted for each species: time of day (species curve anchored to real sunrise and sunset), moon (transits, rise and set, phase), pressure (3 h trend and 24 h swing), water temperature (in rivers, estimated from air temperature; at sea, estimated by an ocean model), wind, rain, clouds, tide and the month in the species' cycle.
Accuracy measured in the reference project (4 regions, 93 days, forecast vs. observed): maximum temperature is off by 0.6 °C on average the next day and 1.7 °C at 7 days; rain of 5 mm or more is detected 76% of the time the next day and 57% at 7 days. Detection isn't everything: the false alarm rate isn't published here yet, and 93 days in 4 regions is still a small sample. We now also measure every day, at the app's destinations:
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Your location is saved only on this device and feeds the forecast, the map and the "today" on the home page.
